Short-Term Positive Factors Exhausted, Iron Ore Prices Marginally Weaken [SMM Brief Commentary]

Iron ore futures moved downwards after a higher opening today, with the most-traded contract I2601 closing at 800 yuan/mt, down 0.12% from the previous working day. Traders showed moderate willingness to sell; steel mills remained cautious and purchased as needed. Market transaction sentiment was moderate. In Shandong, mainstream transaction prices for old PB fines were 790-795 yuan/mt, down 0-5 yuan/mt from yesterday; new PB fines traded around 780 yuan/mt. In Tangshan, PB fines traded at 795-800 yuan/mt, down 0-5 yuan/mt from yesterday. The US Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, leading to the exhaustion of short-term macro tailwinds and a marginal weakening in market sentiment, which exerted some pressure on futures. However, from an industrial fundamental perspective, apparent demand for the five major steel products continued to recover slightly this week. Although total inventory increased slightly WoW, rebar inventory has already reached an inflection point and begun destocking. The recovery in finished steel demand currently provides bottom support for iron ore prices, and futures have shown strong resistance to declines. Considering that some steel mills still have restocking needs before the holiday, overall raw material consumption is expected to grow, and ore prices are likely to stabilize and rebound in the near term.